Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15?

Market strongly favors the reopening of Ben Gurion Airport by March 15.

The prediction market indicates a 100% probability for the reopening of Ben Gurion Airport by March 15, while the AI model suggests a slightly lower probability of 94%. This discrepancy indicates that the NO side may be undervalued by 6 points, suggesting potential market overconfidence in the YES outcome.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly positive for reopening.
• 2 AI model shows a slight divergence from market consensus, indicating caution.
• 3 The high confidence level suggests strong belief in the YES outcome.
• 4 Time to expiry is limited, adding urgency to the prediction.
• 5 Market liquidity may influence the stability of current probabilities.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel's Ben Gurion Airport (TLV) opens to any departures or arrivals between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" arrivals and departures from TLV must be open to scheduling by Israeli citizens or the general public and at least one civilian departure or arrival must have occurred. These conditions must be true at the same time. An announcement that TVA has reopened alone will not qualify.

Rescue, repatriation, evacuation, military, humanitarian, or other special-purpose flights that are not bookable by the general public or not considered ordinary civilian flights will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source will be information from TVA and the Israel Airports Authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.