Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

One Battle After Another is favored to win Best Picture with a 74.5% probability.

The market shows a strong inclination towards One Battle After Another winning Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards, with a probability of 74.5%. The Pulse AI also supports this sentiment, albeit at a slightly lower probability of 68.5%. The NO side appears undervalued, indicating potential for a shift in sentiment.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors One Battle After Another.
• 2 The NO side is undervalued by 6 points, suggesting room for adjustment.
• 3 High confidence level of 90/100 indicates strong market belief in the prediction.
• 4 Time to expiry is short, creating urgency in market movements.
• 5 Potential volatility could arise from upcoming award announcements.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Picture.

If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Picture when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.