Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by March 31, 2026?

The market indicates low confidence in Russia capturing Stepnohirsk by March 2026.

With a market probability of 19% for a YES outcome, the consensus leans heavily towards NO at 81%. The Pulse AI probability slightly favors YES at 22.5%, suggesting some uncertainty, but overall confidence remains moderate at 70/100.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The probability gap indicates a well-balanced market with fair pricing.
• 3 The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for a YES outcome than the market.
• 4 Confidence level of 70/100 reflects moderate uncertainty among participants.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding unpredictability to future developments.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Stepnohirsk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Stepnohirsk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Prymorske" with a darker grey line. If all area within the m