Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Stellan Skarsgård has a low chance of winning Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that Stellan Skarsgård will not win the Best Supporting Actor award, with an 85% probability against it. The AI model shows a slightly higher probability for his win, but overall sentiment remains skeptical as the market appears fairly priced.

• 1 Current market probability for a win is 15%, indicating low confidence.
• 2 The AI probability suggests a marginally higher chance at 18.5%.
• 3 Market sentiment is predominantly against Skarsgård winning.
• 4 The edge of 3.5 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 5 With 22 hours until expiry, time pressure may influence last-minute changes.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor.

If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.