Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Timothée Chalamet has a 44.5% chance of winning Best Actor at the Oscars.

The market indicates a slightly higher probability for Chalamet not winning, with a 55.5% chance against 44.5% for a win. The Pulse AI further suggests a lower likelihood of victory at 38.5%, indicating a consensus that he may be undervalued in this market. With 151 hours until the event, sentiment may shift as more information becomes available.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans towards Chalamet not winning.
• 2 The Pulse AI shows a significant gap in win probability.
• 3 Market confidence is relatively high at 75 out of 100.
• 4 Time pressure may influence market dynamics as the event approaches.
• 5 Chalamet's historical performance in awards could impact perceptions.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Actor.

If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.