Will Ukraine re-enter Novomykolaivka by March 31?

High probability for Ukraine to re-enter Novomykolaivka by March 31.

The market indicates a strong belief in Ukraine's likelihood of re-entering Novomykolaivka by the end of March, with a probability of 99.95%. However, the Pulse AI suggests a slightly lower confidence at 93.95%, indicating potential undervaluation of the NO side by 6 points.

• 1 Market sentiment heavily favors a YES outcome.
• 2 The NO side shows potential for undervaluation, suggesting market uncertainty.
• 3 Confidence level is relatively high at 80/100.
• 4 Time to expiry is 520 hours, allowing for potential developments.
• 5 The disparity between market probability and AI prediction indicates differing assessments.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Novomykolaivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, (47.84615411579054° N, 36.49633879271014° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).

Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.

Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated se