Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026?

Market predicts a high likelihood of a strike on Iran by March 1, 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus with a 100% probability for a strike by the US or Israel on Iran. The Pulse AI also supports this view, albeit with a slightly lower probability of 94%, indicating some room for uncertainty. The edge suggests that the NO side may be undervalued, reflecting potential market overconfidence.

• 1 Current sentiment is overwhelmingly in favor of a strike occurring.
• 2 The market probability indicates strong confidence in military action.
• 3 Historical trends show increased military activity in similar geopolitical contexts.
• 4 Liquidity appears stable, allowing for efficient market movements.
• 5 Time pressure is significant with only 32 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US or Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US or Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the thir