Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 10, 2026?

High probability of a US or Israel strike on Iran on March 10, 2026.

The market indicates a strong belief that either the US or Israel will strike Iran on the specified date, with a probability of 98.65%. The Pulse AI also supports this view, although it suggests a slightly lower probability of 92.65%, indicating potential undervaluation of the NO side.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a strike occurring.
• 2 The NO side is perceived as undervalued by 6 points.
• 3 Confidence in the prediction is moderate at 75 out of 100.
• 4 Time to expiry is short, at just 26 hours.
• 5 Historical context may influence perceptions of military action likelihood.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US or Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US or Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the thir